Source: UNIV OF CALIFORNIA submitted to
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Accession No.
Grant No.
Project No.
Proposal No.
Multistate No.
Program Code
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2008
Project End Date
Dec 31, 2008
Grant Year
Project Director
Gutierrez, A. P.
Recipient Organization
Performing Department
Non Technical Summary
Climate change will alter the distribution of crops and their yield directly and alter interaction with pests and natural enemies. The proposed modeling approach will allow the separation of biological and weather effects on crop yield and provide the basis for economic analyses on a regional basis.
Animal Health Component
Research Effort Categories

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
Goals / Objectives
The goal of this project is to further the development and application of integrated physiologically based geospatial modelling tools for interdisciplinary analysis of complex eco-social problems in agriculture; tools that are designed to help government agencies develop sound response policy to cope with global change issues.
Project Methods
The project will integrate weather driven physiologically based Ecosystem Modelling (EM) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop a dynamic understanding of complex agricultural systems in the face of global change and especially climate change. Multivariate analyses will be used to summarize the main effect of model predictions in a space and time independent way that provides a solid but flexible basis for managing agricultural systems on a regional scale within the context of a changing global environment. The integrated EM/GIS system may be viewed as a library of the current knowledge about an agro-ecosystem that can be updated with new knowledge, used to help guide multidisciplinary research on local and regional scales, and that can be easily extended to new crops systems. Furthermore, such systems will be linked to and tested against remote sensing applications to facilitate and simplify future implementation on a regional scale.

Progress 10/01/08 to 12/31/08

OUTPUTS: Among works contributing to the goals of the project are: (i.) Development of a physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) of the invasive light brown apple moth and analysis of the geographic limits; (ii.) Completion of a PBDM of the olive/olive fly system for the analysis of the effects of extant weather and climatic warming in Arizona, California, Italy and Sardinia; (iii) Analysis of the multi-disease systems of east African agro-pastoral systems with a detailed analysis of the tick borne diseases system; (iv) Analysis of the stability, resilience, and eco-social sustainability of cellulosic biofuel production on marginal lands. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience is composed of research administrators and funding agencies as well as researchers. The research shows how questions of invasive species, climate change and technological innovations interact and how they can be investigated in a holistic regional manner in the face of climate change. Specifically, the work provides realistic bio-economic methods for assessing weaknesses in technologies(e.g. biotechnology, biofuel biomass production), the need for and relative effectiveness of costly technologies such as eradication efforts of invasive species (e.g. light brown apple moth), and how to assess important vector/disease system problems. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Light brown apple moth: The light brown apple moth (LBAM) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in 14 coastal counties in Northern California and Los Angeles where it has not reached outbreak status. USDA has placed quarantine on produce there and projects the range includes California and the southern USA. A weather driven physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) was developed that suggests LBAM will be restricted to coastal California with some extension into the north-central valley. Olive/olive fly system: A PBDM was developed to simulate the phenology, growth and population dynamics of olive and olive fly (OF) across the ecological zones of Arizona-California (AZ-CA), Italy and Sardinia using observed weather and three climate warming (CW) scenarios (+ 1, 2 and 3 degrees centigrade respectively). Predicted bloom dates, yield, total fly pupae and percent infestation were mapped using GRASS GIS. In AZ-CA, CW is expected to contract the range of olive in southern desert areas, and to expand it northward and along coastal areas. OF is limited by high temperature in the southern range and by cold weather northward, but CW is expected to increase OF's range northward and in coastal areas, but decrease it in hotter areas. In Italy, the range of olive is expected to increase into higher elevations in the Apennines and in the Po Valley. CW is expected to increase the range of OF northward throughout most of Italy. In Sardinia, olive production and OF are expected to increase in higher elevation and to decrease in hotter currently favorable regions. (iii) East African agro-pastoral systems: Major constraints on east African Agro-pastoral systems include tsetse vectored trypanosomiasis (TRY) and tick vectored diseases (TBD) in cattle, and malaria in humans. In many areas, TRY has been the major constraint, but recent use urine baited adult fly to decrease disease pressure has produced increases in cattle, milk, and area of cultivation, income and human populations. The analysis suggests that removal of TRY increases TBD and malaria as cattle and humans respectively, and to over grazing and loss of soil fertility. (iv) Cellulosic biofuel production (CBP) on marginal lands (MLs): MLs are defined as unfit for food crops. MLs were examined for stability, resilience, and eco-social sustainability before and after their conversion to CBP. The PBMs were embedded in a bio-economic model (BE) having the dynamics of biofuel biomass and the manger as dynamic constraints in the objective function that seeks maximizing the utility of consumption. The BE was used to examine the effects of increased conversion efficiency, input costs, risk, and levels of base resources and inputs on the competitive and societal optimal solutions for biomass production and its marginal price. Factors that increase risk decrease the marginal price of biomass and decrease the optimal level of biomass production, but not the competitive level. Increasing efficiency increases the marginal price, but decreases the optimal and competitive solutions suggesting over exploitation. Increasing risk and efficiency increase exploitation, possibly to the point of bankruptcy.


  • Baumgaertner, J. , G. Gilioli, G. Tikubet, A. P. Gutierrez (2008) Eco-social analysis of an East African agro-pastoral system: Management of tsetse and bovine trypanosomiasis. Ecological Economics 65:125-135.
  • Ponti,L., Q. A. Cossu and A.P. Gutierrez (2009) Climate warming effects on the olive-Bactrocera oleae system on Mediterranean Islands: Sardinia as an example. Global Climate Change
  • Gutierrez, A.P., N. J. Mills and L. Ponti (2009) Climatic Limits of the light brown apple moth in Arizona-California: Comments on its eradication. Environ. Entomol.
  • Gutierrez, A. P., L. Ponti, C. K. Ellis and T. d Oultremont (2008) Climatic Change Effects on tritrophic systems. Climatic Change 87: 167-192. Gutierrez, A. P., L. Ponti and Q.A. Cossu(2009) Prospective comparative analysis of global warming effects on olive and olive fly(Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in Arizona-California and Italy. Climatic Change (published on line 14 January 2009).
  • Gutierrez, A.P., G. Gilioli and J. Baumgaertner (2009) Conceptual Meta Tools for Research and Development in African Disease Management. PNAS.
  • Pemsl, D, A.P. Gutierrez and H. Waibel. (2008). The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption. Ecological Economics 66: 177-183.