Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to
IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND SOILS ON CROP SELECTION AND MANAGEMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0165428
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
ILLU-875-324-T
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
NC-94
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 1999
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2004
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Hollinger, S. E.
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
NATURAL RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Non Technical Summary
Weather and climate play an important role in crop and pest development and final yields. Thus impacting the security of food in the United States and the world. The purpose of this project is to learn more about the effects of climate, soils, management practices, and economic conditions on crop yields in the NC Region.
Animal Health Component
30%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
60%
Applied
30%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1320430107015%
1320430207015%
1322410107015%
1322410207015%
2050430107010%
2050430207010%
2052410107010%
2052410207010%
Goals / Objectives
1.0. Update and maintain NC-0094 regional databases on soils, crop production and weather. 2.0. Develop predictive relationships for crop yield in the North Central region as a function of ENSO, SST, and frequencies associated with natural variability. 3.0. Viewing the optimum crop(s) selection as a dynamic decision on the basis of variability in natural resource patterns in the region.
Project Methods
Objective 1.0: Add climate data to existing county-level crop, soil, and climate database as it becomes available. Crop development data will be assembled from NASS publications. 2.0. Study the relationship between corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, sunflower, etc. production and ENSO conditions. 3.0. Identify models that best represent crop yield responses to weather and use the models to evaluate the climate, soil, and crop interactions. The models will be used to determine probabilities of expected crop yields as a function of planting and harvest decisions. Optimum growing regions for different crops will be identified as functions of soils, climate, and economic conditions. Air temperature, crop and pest development data from the NC region will be used to develop regional crop and pest development calendars for the major crops and pests of the region.

Progress 10/01/99 to 09/30/04

Outputs
During the last year of this project, a draft of a North Central climate atlas was produced in cooperation with Michigan and other states. In addition a scientific paper was published describing the ability to predice daily solar radiation models. Daily climate data for 2002 and 2003 were also developed and distrbuted to other NC-94 cooperators. A silk weather index for corn was developed. The index is a function of the number of consecutive days with less than 2.54 mm (0.1 inches) of rain during the silk period; the heat stress degree days defined as the degrees above 90F (32.2C) accumulated during the silk period; the mean maximum temperature during the silk period; the mean daily solar radiation during the silk period; the mean minimum air temperature for the months of May and June; and the mean maximum air temperature for the months of April and May. The silk weather index was related to the 1991-2003 Sagnamon County, Illinois, corn yields. The corn yields were normalized by inflating the reported yields by one percent per year prior to 2003. The silk weather index explained 92 percent of the year-to-year yield variation in Sagnamon County.

Impacts
This work will provide information to better understand the climate of the North Central Region and its direct impact on the crops grown as well as the indirect effects through the soil climate interactions.

Publications

  • Bowen, C.R. and Hollinger, S.E. 2004. Geographic screening of potential alternative crops. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 19(3):141-151.


Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03

Outputs
Illinois updated the North Central Region's county climate and crop yield data for 1971, 2000, and 2001. Illinois also computed climate statistics for each county which were transferred to Michigan for creation of a climate and soil atlas. Illinois, with cooperation from South Dakota, conducted a study of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on corn, soybean, and wheat yields. In cool PDO phases (negative PDO) corn and wheat yields were higher than the yield trends, and soybean was slightly lower. During the cool phase, precipitation was greater in the southeast part of the region in the winter, greater in north during the spring, and in the west in the fall than precipitation during the warm phase. Fall daily minimum and maximum temperatures were greater in the cool phase. During the winter and spring, temperatures in the south were greater during the cool phase than during the warm phase. In the summer, the minimum daily temperatures were lower in the south during the cool phase than in the warm phase. While there were significant differences in the response of crop yields to the PDO, no strong relationships were found with the precipitation and temperature variables. Illinois, with cooperation from Indiana, Georgia, Kansas, and Nebraska, created county database files that included modeled solar radiation data for all counties and years from 1971 through 2001. Illinois, with cooperation from Indiana, Georgia, Kansas, and Nebraska, evaluated three daily solar radiation models that used daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation to estimate daily solar radiation. This work identified a model developed by Nebraska as the best of the three models, and a manuscript describing the results has been submitted for publication in the scientific literature.

Impacts
This work will provide information to better understand the climate of the North Central Region and its direct impact on the crops grown as well as the indirect effects through the soil climate interactions.

Publications

  • Grant, R.H., Hollinger, S.E., Hubbard, K.G., Hoogenboom, G. and Vanderlip, R.L. 2003. Ability to predict daily solar radiation values for use in crop simulation models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (Submitted).


Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02

Outputs
During the past year, Illinois finished the collection of state level corn, soybean, and wheat crop calendar data for all states in the North Central Region, and corn and soybean district data for Illinois and Indiana. The state data have been summarized to provide the earliest and latest first weeks of each crop growth stage, the earliest and latest last weeks of each crop growth stage, and the mean length of each growth stage. These data were distributed to all states at the annual meeting.

Impacts
When completed this work will show how weather throughout the North Central Region impacts the yield of the major crops of corn, soybean, and wheat. Models will have been developed that allow for future assessment of the impact of climate on yields in the North Central Region.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01

Outputs
During the past year, an alpha version of a computer program to extract the data for specific soils for each county, all soils in each county, all soils in each state, and for all soils in the region has been developed. The program is written so that it can select which soil characteristics to output from the Paradox databases. Hopefully, the NC-94 cooperators will find the soil databases more user friendly and the potential use of the databases will expand beyond this project. Collection of crop calendar data was continued. State level data are the only data included in the database at this time. The county weather data basse has been extended from 1995 through 2000. Only the daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation were included in the 1996 through 2000 data. Solar radiation and evapotranspiration are not available because of the switch from man cloud cover observation to automated cloud estimates at the ASOS stations.

Impacts
This work when completed will show how climate variability affects crop production and the distribution across the North Central Region.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00

Outputs
Progress has been made on developing an interface to the NC-94 soil data base which contains the STATSGO soils information for the 12 states in the North Central Region. This interface will allow users to select specific soil characteristics for any specific soil, or all the soils in a county. The development of a data base containing the crop growth stages for the crop reporting districts in the North Central Region for the period 1972 through 2000.

Impacts
The results of this project will provide information to the agriculture community and producers about which existing crops are suited for production in different parts of the North Central United States and the climate risks associated with growing each crop.

Publications

  • Hollinger, S.E., Ehler, E.J. and Carlson, R.E.. 2000. Midwestern United States corn and soybean yield response to changing El-Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions during the growing season. In. Rosenzweig, C., K. Boote, S. Hollinger, and J. Phillips, eds. Impacts of El Nino and Climate Variability on Agriculture. Special Publication of American Society of Agronomy. (In press).


Progress 01/01/99 to 12/31/99

Outputs
During 1999 the weather data base was extended to include the period from 1991 to 1995, and solar radiation and potential evaporation variables were added to the daily temperature and precipitation data for each county in the North Central Region. These data, along with the soils data for each county were distributed on a CD-Rom to all NC-94 research participants. A data base interface for the soils data bases is in the process of being written and is approximately 80 percent complete. The work on these data bases will provide the required data to begin interfacing the weather and soils data to the crop models that will be used to conduct the climate-soil-crop analyses of this project.

Impacts
The results of this project will provide information to the agriculture community and producers about which existing crops are suited for production in different parts of the North Central United States and the climate risks associated with growing each crop.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/97 to 09/30/98

Outputs
Each spring and summer from 1900 through 1997 was classified as El Nino, non-ENSO, or La Nina, based on the southern oscillation index. This scheme results in the development of nine different growing season conditions. State yields of corn and soybean for each year were used to determine the deviations from a trend line defined by using a dose response logistic equation which fits the data using 4 parameters. The effects of the El Nino conditions were greater on corn yields than soybean yields, and varied across the North Central region. Crop yields in the El Nino seasons were affected most by rainfall deviations, while La Nina seasons were affected most by temperature deviations. The dose response logistic curves provide valuable insight into the yield trends across the region. Dose response logistic curves were developed for corn, soybean, wheat, barley, and sorghum. The response curves show differences in the yield trends across the region. In Kansas and Nebraska for example, the corn yields are continuing to increase at a faster pace than they are in Illinois and Iowa. This difference is due mainly to the irrigation of corn in the western states. Additional work needs to be done to determine whether the trend changes are due to weather conditions or due to changes in technology.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/96 to 09/30/97

Outputs
A soil moisture climatology was developed using typical soil for each county calculated using the areal-weighted average of all the soils in the county. Daily soil moisture was computed using county-daily temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation data (developed as a part of this objective) and the Ritchie soil moisture and CERES-Maize models as installed at the Midwest Climate Center. A weekly mean soil moisture was computed from the daily soil moisture for the period from 1972 to 1991. These weekly values for the 20-year period were used to compute the driest 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile levels of soil moisture for each week. For example, the 25th driest percentile identifies the upper limit of the driest 25 percent of the soil moisture for each week. Generally, the wettest soils occur during the week of May 28th to June 3rd. The driest soil conditions occur during the week of July 30th to August 5th. Significant recharge has occured by the week of September 10th to September 16th, and is basically recharged in the eastern one-half of the region by the week of November 5th to November 11th. A climatology of the probability of drought stress during different corn growth stages was computed using rainfall and evapotranspiration based on the corn growth stages rather than the calendar. The normal date of planting was determined using State Agricultural Statistical Service's date of planting information. Rainfall and evapotranspiration were summed based on corn growth stages computed from growing degree day sums and typical growing degree day requirements for each crop reporting district in the region. The rainfall totals for each county were used to compute the parameters for the Weibull distribution. The probability of receiving rainfall equal to evapotranspiration, 75-, 50-, and 25-percent of evapotranspiration. The county data were mapped and to show regions where rainfall shortages relative to the corn plants needs occur on a regular basis.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

  • Changnon, S.A.; Czs, R.R.; Hollinger, S.E.; Huff, F.A.; Scott, R.W.; and Westcott, N.E. 1997. Investigations of Purposeful and Inadvertent Weather and Climate Modification and the Implications of Altered Atmospheric Conditions. Contract Report 609. Illinois State Water Survey. Champaign, Illinois.


Progress 10/01/95 to 09/30/96

Outputs
This project involves the spatial and temporal analysis of the climate, soil, and crop characteristics in the North Central Region, and analysis and interpretation of the inter- relationships between climate, soils and crop production. During the past year results of an experiment to determine the most sensitive period of corn to rainfall were used to study the probability of drought stress in the North Central Region during different corn growth stages. The timing of the growth stages were determined using the normal planting date for each of the Crop Reporting Districts in the region. Results show that the later growth stages are most susceptible to rainfall amounts less than evapotranspiration. The probability of drought increases in a westerly direction. Rainfall shortage probabilities were computed by fitting the Weibull distribution to the 1961 to 1990 rainfall record for each Crop Reporting District. In addition to the probability of rainfall less than evapotranspiration during each growth stage, probabilities of mild drought (rainfall less than or equal to 75 percent of evapotranspiration), moderate drought (rainfall less than or equal to 50 percent of evapotranspiration), severe drought (rainfall less than or equal to 25 percent of evapotranspiration) and extreme drought (rainfall less than or equal to 10 percent of evapotranspiration) were also computed.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

  • HOLLINGER, S. E., and CHANGNON, S.A. 1996. Timing rainfall increases to maximize corn response. Preprint: 13th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, 76th AMS Annual Meeting, January 1996, Atlanta, GA.
  • AMS, Boston, MA.


Progress 10/01/94 to 09/30/95

Outputs
This project involves the spatial and temporal analyses of climate, soil, and crop characteristics in the North Central Region, and analysis and interpretation of the inter-relationships between climate, soils and crop production. During the past year, the weighted average of soil characteristics used by crop yield and soil moisture models was computed for each county in the region. These results will be used in future analyses with climate and crop yield data to develop a better understanding of how the landscape and yields change with varying weather. A field experiment was also conducted to better understand the response of corn yields to timing of rainfall. Results of this experiment indicate that the period from planting to tassel initiation results in the greatest yield losses if no rain is received. The second most sensitive period is from the 10-leaf stage to silking, and the third from the end-of-lag-phase stage to maturity. In the natural environment, the most sensitive period is from silking to maturity because there is a greater probability for a shortfall of rain during July and August compared to May and early June when the crop is normally in the planting to tassel initiation stage. Results from this experiment provide the information needed to better assess the effects of early season droughts on corn yield. Previously, the effects of droughts could only be determined for the reproductive periods of corn growth.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

  • HOLLINGER, S.E. 1995. Midwestern Climate Center Soil Atlas and Database. Circular 179, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL.
  • HOLLINGER, S.E. 1995. Corn yield response to rainfall during different growth stages. Agron. Abstr. p. 13.